Subject: Re: bitcoin a loser
". The annual volatility of Bitcoin is about 3.8x the volatility of the S&P 500. That means that the average annual return of Bitcoin needs to be about 30% per year to make it break even with the S&P 500 on a compound return basis...

I'm no fan of putting money into bitcoin, to say the least, but this is innumeracy. To match the "compound return", it has to have the same start-to-end CAGR. By definition. That will of course vary with the time period chosen, for both choices, but the size of the squiggles along the way don't change your ultimate annualized rate of return.

They are perhaps thinking of risk adjusted returns using volatility as a proxy for risk? That's an entirely difference species of idiocy.

Jim