Subject: Re: Sweden
I am surprised that you can't see, or can see and won't admit, my simple point.

But before I restate that point, let me get this out of the way, I support Ukraine, I want them to prevail, I believe in democracy, etc etc etc.

So please don't construe my noticing a flaw in the argument used to support it as some sort of proof I not only want Ukraine to fall but that in general I don't even support democracy.

But I do understand your point Mike. I need no lecture. You want to say since we can't produce for x,y,z years why should we rush? Why the stampede?...as you put it.

And I point out that this is going on since 2022, it's 2024, and you want to say stampede? That's the first thing you said. Do you actually think that the Senators - who are more privy to what is going on than we are - and making extremely hard compromises - were rushing things? And the big answer to it is to wait some more - we have time why.

As I said there's money in there to gear up. But the answer is laying all around you Mike, if you just look for it. Here's Time:

<SNIP> If the U.S. approves funding for Ukraine—the Senate passed $60 billion in aid last week but it faces steep hurdles in the House—it should be possible to get around 1.3 million rounds of ammunition to the country in 2024, which would allow Ukraine to hold the line. With European investment to expand production, significantly more can be provided in 2025, meeting a level that would enable Ukrainian offensive operations. But with Europe still expanding production capacity, Ukraine will face critical shortages in the next few months unless the U.S. steps in.

Russia understands the importance of artillery in a war of attrition. While Russian artillery use has been crude and has underperformed, the sheer volume of shells it is expending has given Moscow a decisive battlefield edge today. The country is set to produce another 1.3 million rounds of 152 mm caliber ammunition in 2024, along with around 800,000 rounds of 122 mm caliber ammunition. Alongside a remaining stockpile of around 3 million rounds, the delivery of over 1 million rounds from North Korea, and production contracts signed with North Korea, Belarus, Iran, and Syria, Russia will continue to have firepower dominance throughout the year.

In spite of these advantages, Russia’s firepower dominance will potentially diminish over time. Although its shell production can increase, Russia has so far relied heavily on taking barrels from old Soviet systems it held in storage. By 2025, these stocks will be running low and Russia’s capacity to forge barrels is insufficient to meet its future needs.

The result is that through 2025 the accuracy of Russian guns, and the number that are available at any given time, may diminish. That may give Ukraine and its backers some hope in the longer run. But the critical question is whether the U.S. is willing to sustain the fight for the next year, before the tide begins to turn once again in Ukraine’s favor.

https://time.com/6694885/ukrai...

I hope you understand that we understand the war of attrition. About 70% of the destruction in this war is from artillery fire. We needed to do this yesterday Mike. Doing it today is late. Thinking this is a stampede is incredibly naive.

You can find different expressions on this theme if you look around.