Subject: Re: What happened to the recent crash?
Last night my timing signal was:
Potential recession, obey SMA sell signal.
yes confusing it is.
Keep in mind this known thing about SMA trend following.
Criteria that Refute- Moving averages do well in trending markets but they generate many false signals in choppy, sideways markets.
Description- After a crossover is identified, it is considered "not yet confirmed". Then additional confirmation is sought by watching the slope of the moving average.
Example; The "Economic Modern Family" (@MarketGauge.com) is a combination of one market index and 5 varying sectors & groups for "Market Analysis".
Three or four of the following have sideways trends while the three market ETF are seeing 52wH.
Modern Family: Symbol: Status:* Confirmed: Roles: (leading indicators that act as a guide for the stock market macro picture)
S&P 500 Index .SPX Bullish Yes - major U.S. market index
Russell 1000EW EQAL Bullish Yes - gauge the health of many Large-cap & Mid-cap companies within the U.S.
Russell 2000 IWM Bullish Yes - gauge the health of many Small-cap & some Micro-cap companies within the U.S.
Transportation IYT Bullish Not Yet - measure Industry & Manufacture strength - supply and demand
Retail XRT Bullish Yes - measure strength economy and consumer confidence
Regional Banks KRE Bullish Not Yet - measure the health of financial system in the U.S.
BioTech IBB Bullish Not Yet - highly speculated: assesses where money is flowing
SemiConductor SMH Bullish Yes - innovation: a major player technology trends
As of (LastD) --- 16-May-24 16-May-24 ---
GD_