Subject: Re: S&P 500 hits record high
Yes this is true, unfortunately...
The total return of the S&P 500 still remains behind risk free T-bills since its January 2022 peak more than two years ago.

Kinda what you'd expect from these valuation levels?
1 yr T-Bills paying 4.97% vs S&P 500 earnings yield of 3.68%.
S&P 500 P/Book is currently 4.65, in 2009 it hit 1.78.
Buffett Indicator is 184%. Warren has said, "If the % relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you."
S&P 500 Dividend Yield is currently 1.4% in 2009 it hit 3.24%. (A recent Fidelity research paper states that since 1930, dividends have accounted for roughly 40% of the total return of US stocks.)

Valuations matter.
Let's look at the historic ups (Bulls) and downs (Bears) of the S&P 500, shall we?

1929-1949 bear market (20 years): 0% total annual return. T-Bills outperformed the S&P 500 for a 20 year period.
1949-1966 bull market (17 years): 17% total annual return. S&P 500 outperformed T-Bills for a 17 year period.
1966-1982 bear market (16 years): 5% total annual return. T-Bills earned 7% during this bear market, outperforming the S&P 500 by 2% per year over a 16 year period.
1982-1999 bull market (17 years): 20% total annual return. S&P 500 outperformed T-Bills for a 17 year period.
2000-2009 bear market (9 years): -6% total annual return. T-Bills outperformed the S&P 500 for a 9 year period.
2009-2022 bull market (13 years): 16% total annual return. S&P 500 outperformed T-Bills for a 13 year period.
Currently The total return of the S&P 500 remains behind Treasury bills since its January 2022 peak more than two years ago.

In 2014, in the fifth edition of Stocks for the Long Run, Jeremy Siegel wrote:
"In the first four editions of Stocks for the Long Run, I noted that the last 30-year period when the return on bonds beat stocks ended in 1861, at the onset of the Civil War.
That is no longer true. The 11.03% annual returns on long-term government bonds surpassed the 10.98% on stocks for the 30-year period from January 1, 1982, through the end of 2011."

A full 30 year period where fixed income outperformed the S&P 500! With much less risk and stress.

Make sure your portfolio matches your need, willingness and ability to take risk. And as any Japanese Investor from the 1990's will tell you, diversification is your friend!

Cheers!

All #'s taken from Schiller's site.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller...