Subject: Re: More on keeping Biden
#2 - No primary contest.

Even if Biden anoints a replacement, there will still likely be a contest, as I'm sure some people will want someone other than the anointed one. Lichtman brought that up in a recent interview. The actual test for this one is the incumbent party nominee winning at least 2/3 of the delegates on the first ballot at the convention. So it's possible for a replacement to keep this true, but with a fairly open convention, that seems unlikely.

Gotcha.

Isn't it likely that that one's already in failure? The 2/3 convention delegate threshold isn't itself what's significant - it's just a proxy measure for whether the party is united behind the incumbent heading into the convention. Given the circumstances, I think that's probably not likely to be the case.