Subject: Re: Dollar Tree DLTR
The cfo bought quite a bit stock in April. His cost is $136. lol.
I don’t remember the last time a CFO buy his/her own company’s stock. This is got to be a very bullish signal..

Perhaps so.

I find that with these dollar stores the real secret is to avoid letting the current stock price influence your opinion of what it's worth, which is hard. In any given stretch of (say) 2-2.5 years, there always seems to be a point that they're really expensive and a point that they're really cheap. I have done pretty well over the years buying low and selling high. I never nail the top or bottom, and sometimes it takes some patience, but it's not so hard to tell which end of the scale you're at.

For fun, note that Value Line's 3-5 year price target range is $155-235. On the dodgy assumption that they're right, then depending on the 3/4/5 year time frame and the low or high end of that range, those are annualized rates of return in the 10.4%/year - 35.5%/year range from the current price of $94.36. Average of the scenarios 20.6%/year for 4 years to a target of $195.

Things do seem to be pretty unpleasant at the moment for them. Maybe it's a passing thunder cloud, maybe it's going to be a long term problem. But I'll still try to value it based on the dire bumps at the business, not on the dire stock price : )

I don't have any at the moment, though I do have a fair chunk of DG. Not that it has done me much good. The price is higher than when I touted it at mungofitch.com, but lower than where I [most recently] bought it.

Jim