Subject: Re: US EU trade deal on energy
Too bad it is not possible to make any more LNG terminals or expand existing terminals.
So sad.

Of course it is possible, but according to the White House the $750 billion in exports will be completed by 2028, less than two and a half years from now. I don't know much about LNG terminals specifically, but usually large capital projects like this take a long time. Plus, the US has to develop all the gas capacity to be exported. That times some time too. I'm not an expert, but I have to agree with the industry analysts who think this goal is unlikely.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/fac...

That said, the EU wants to wean itself off Russian natural gas for obvious reasons. I asked Perplexity about the price between US LNG exports and Russian natural gas:

U.S. LNG is currently exported at a lower unit price ($8.14–$8.44/MMBtu) than the actual European spot market or Russian pipeline gas arriving in Europe ($11.20–$11.80/MMBtu), excluding shipping and regasification costs. However, some U.S. cargoes sold at spot can fetch closer to TTF prices, depending on the contract structure.

So, the EU agrees to buy something they are already highly motivated to buy. This has to be the easiest deal in the history of deals. Keep in mind that Canadian energy imports to the US have a tariff of 10%, so US production will likely backfill some of that demand and won't be available for export. So the politicians are promising a clearly unrealistic timeline.

One other thing I also thought was interesting/unusual about this deal. As we know, most US manufacturers rely heavily on parts and even final assembly from Canada and Mexico. Which as far as I can tell are currently 35% and 25%, respectively on most things. The EU escaped with only 15% down from the proposed 30%, and as far as I can tell made no significant concessions.