Subject: Dual Momentum on Fixed Income Backtest (DMFI)
Below are the results of a quick backtest on PortfolioVisualizer of a dual momentum fixed income approach (DMFI) as proposed by Antonacci in the Dual Momentum book, aligned with the GEM model.
Summary - better than straight bond allocation in a 60/40.
Performance Summary
Performance statistics for the timing portfolio and benchmark portfolios
Portfolio Initial Final CAGR Stdev Bestyr Worstyr MaxDD Sharpe Sortino Correl
Dual Momentum Model $10,000 $17,759 4.06% 4.85% 14.20% -4.24% -10.58% 0.70 1.09 0.37
Equal Weight Portfolio $10,000 $15,035 2.87% 3.66% 10.95% -9.18% -11.62% 0.60 0.90 0.65
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF $10,000 $13,858 2.29% 4.17% 8.83% -13.11% -17.28% 0.40 0.57 0.24
Fixed income assets used, as suggested by Antonacci: JNK (Hi yield), MBB (mortgage backed securities ETF), GBF (govt/credit bonds ETF), BIL (3 mo treasury ETF).
Benchmark: BND
Time period: 12/2008-present
Lookback: 12 months (Antonacci's standard)
Ranking/Trading: monthly, at next close after month end
Risk-free asset: cash
Apparently Antonacci focused on the intermediate-term bond market, avoided the long term Treasuries in his pre-selected approach. Fortuitous call, as the 20+ years (as represented by TLT) got crushed in the last year after a long run of outperformance prior as interest rates dropped to 0.