Subject: Re: beating the market
I would say the average member posting on these boards is not the average investor. At a minimum we're familiar with asset allocations, stocks and bonds, and withdrawal rates.

I picture the average investor as someone primarily putting money aside for their typical 65+ age retirement while working a non-financial job. To someone unfamiliar with the role of bonds in a portfolio, the sudden realization that they would have lost less money in the crash if they'd held more (some?) bonds drives them to sell stocks and buy bonds - the exact opposite of the rebalancing behavior that properly established asset allocation would have you engage in.

The behavior of a rush to safety in a stock market crash is also a challenge to professional investors running funds. Just as the market has gotten cheaper, and presumably brought *more* investments opportunities, fund investors have gotten scared and are withdrawing funds leaving the professional investor with *less* investment funds. .

The measurement of the performance of the stock market - say the returns of the S&P 500, would coincide with the returns of a very disciplined investor - one who leaves their money invested in the market no matter how large the crash. That behavior is different from most investors, and that's why I think matching the market is not a bad result for the average investor.

For instance, you could consider buying 2% of an index fund
Index funds are *huge* buying 2% of an index fund like VOO would cost you $6.5 Billion. I'm sure you mean something like 2% of your net worth, or 2% of you investment portfolio.