Subject: Re: “Life was better under Trump”
so again no, even with reinvigoration of the voting simpletons, i think a theory of always voting out the incumbents as the path of least effort when unhappy is too simple to rely on.

I agree. That's not my theory.

All across the world, voters threw out the parties that were incumbents when the inflation happened. No one believes that this just reduces to "voters unhappy = incumbents lose" going forward.

Voters in the U.S. gave Biden very low marks for his handling of the economy, because they underwent very high inflation without the Administration making it a high priority. If that happens again under Trump, that will be very bad for Republicans - but if inflation rates stay low during his term, they're not going to throw out the GOP simply for lack of deflation.