Subject: Benchmark Investing Update July 3, 2026
This update is to Kenneth Lee’s Benchmark Investing picks based on the latest Monday’s data release. The S&P500 has rebounded dramatically since the previous update. Currently the market is up +9.2% year-to-date. With this update there is just 5 companies in the DJIA 30 that are below their downside price targets. They are NVDA -13%, DIS -29%, MSFT -4%, CRM -76%, and AMZN -26%. Among this select group only DIS qualifies as a viable BI pick.
If you are interested in following along with this methodology against a broader range of stocks outside of the Dow30, these picks are posted here under this post on a regular basis as trades occur (BUY, SELL, and ADD).
Market Valuation (Dow 30):
Market Valuation (Dow 30):
The DOW30 market has gone from a parity reading last quarter to -26% overvalued according to the BI method of valuation.
Downside: -43%
Upside: -9%
Long Buy Rules:
I am using the following TTD rules for Long position considerations:
1. Year-over-Year EPS growth must > 10%, which are the next 4Q / current quarter + previous 3 quarters earnings results
2. VL 3-5 Year price appreciation > average price appreciation of the market
3. When calculating ROE and BV figures, ignore years when they are negative, but must have at least 7+ years of data to be included in final consideration
4. Avoid erratic ROE ratios, that is where they are > 2std deviations = Curr ROE > (10 Year Avg + 2 * Std Dev)
5. ROE and BV current figures must be updated by VL
Sell Rules:
I am using the following TTD rules to Sell Long positions:
Criteria (1 OR 2 OR 5, AND 3 AND 4):
1. Price Appreciation < Market Average Appreciation
2. Current Price > BI HiPrice
3. Hold time > 365 days per cycle
4. ROE & BV must be current
5. No longer listed as a market average component
Summary of Results:
VL Current ROE/BV Down Up %<10Y %<10Y EPS Div 3-5Y 3-5Y VL3-5Y VL18mo ROE
Ticker Date Price Updated Price Price Down Down4Qs Delta Yield VL L$ VL H$ % Chg % Chg <2STD Name
CAT 8-May-26 997 TRUE 351 497 184% 257% 19% 0.6 580 780 -31% -8% FALSE Caterpillar Inc.
MCD 15-May-26 270 FALSE 10% 2.8 415 505 67% 19% TRUE McDonald's Corp.
CVX 22-May-26 171 TRUE 120 167 42% 79% 57% 4.2 245 295 57% 7% FALSE Chevron Corp.
JPM 22-May-26 329 TRUE 226 318 46% 69% 9% 1.9 315 385 4% 19% FALSE JPMorgan Chase
BA 29-May-26 217 TRUE 3.2 5.2 6766% 6766% 113% - 295 445 67% 25% FALSE Boeing
TRV 29-May-26 327 TRUE 296 383 10% 24% -19% 1.6 380 465 31% 14% FALSE Travelers Cos.
UNH 29-May-26 428 TRUE 289 411 48% 48% 16% 2.2 375 565 15% -14% FALSE UnitedHealth Group
AMGN 29-May-26 358 FALSE 0% 2.9 345 465 15% 14% TRUE Amgen
VZ 5-Jun-26 46.54 TRUE 39 50 20% 37% 4% 6.1 65 75 53% -6% FALSE Verizon Communic.
CSCO 5-Jun-26 114 TRUE 50 71 130% 153% 12% 1.4 95 120 -10% -10% FALSE Cisco Systems
HD 12-Jun-26 349 FALSE 4% 2.7 405 495 31% 24% TRUE Home Depot
SHW 12-Jun-26 344 TRUE 249 383 38% 53% 3% 1.0 415 565 47% 15% FALSE Sherwin-Williams
PG 12-Jun-26 149 TRUE 141 184 6% 9% 2% 2.8 190 230 38% 14% FALSE Procter & Gamble
NVDA 19-Jun-26 193 TRUE 222 623 -13% 2% 67% 0.5 295 440 84% 29% FALSE NVIDIA Corp.
AAPL 19-Jun-26 284 TRUE 155 257 84% 116% 11% 0.4 350 470 39% 23% FALSE Apple Inc.
JNJ 26-Jun-26 255 TRUE 171 219 49% 51% 11% 2.2 225 275 3% 12% FALSE Johnson & Johnson
MRK 26-Jun-26 129 TRUE 34 47 279% 55% 13% 2.8 140 170 28% 10% FALSE Merck & Co.
HON 3-Jul-26 232 FALSE 0 0 69146599494% 28% 1% 2.1 245 300 19% 7% TRUE Honeywell Int'l
MMM 3-Jul-26 164 FALSE 51% 7% 1.9 150 225 13% 17% TRUE 3M Company
GS 3-Jul-26 1020 TRUE 466 774 119% 130% 12% 1.7 1020 1380 11% 17% FALSE Goldman Sachs
KO 10-Apr-26 82.63 TRUE 66 83 26% 34% 5% 2.6 80 100 11% 9% FALSE Coca-Cola
WMT 17-Apr-26 116 TRUE 57 82 102% 131% 11% 0.9 140 175 36% 25% FALSE Walmart Inc.
NKE 17-Apr-26 40.75 TRUE 37 60 9% -16% 19% 3.9 60 90 79% 10% TRUE NIKE Inc. 'B'
DIS 24-Apr-26 98.79 TRUE 139 209 -29% -22% 17% 1.5 160 240 97% 26% FALSE Disney (Walt)
AXP 1-May-26 340 TRUE 225 356 52% 65% 11% 1.1 300 450 16% 24% FALSE Amer. Express
V 1-May-26 336 FALSE 7% 10% 0.9 390 475 55% 0% TRUE Visa Inc.
IBM 1-May-26 272 TRUE 136 198 99% 126% 6% 2.7 255 315 34% 24% FALSE Int'l Business Mach.
MSFT 1-May-26 373 TRUE 390 604 -4% 7% 12% 1.0 705 860 107% 27% TRUE Microsoft Corp.
CRM 1-May-26 158 TRUE 660 1151 -76% -73% 7% 1.1 400 600 137% 0% TRUE Salesforce Inc.
AMZN 1-May-26 233 TRUE 313 525 -26% -31% -3% - 350 475 100% 24% FALSE Amazon.com
Dow30 51,876 29,170 47,076 2.1 57,688 76,406 Dow Jones Industrial Average
Appreciation Potential -43% -9% 11% 48% 42% 13%
AllTooFoolish's CAPS Portfolio:
If you are interested in seeing this method applied to a broader universe of stocks, follow my actively managed Benchmark Investing portfolio using an update to this post. I have been using this methodology for many years with great success. In this post you will find my current dynamic managed portfolio and can see my most recent activities as they occur.
Notable activity in my Managed BI portfolio over the past several months:
• BUY: HRL on Apr 10,2026, meets all criteria -22% BI downside price target.
• SELL: SLB on Apr 24, 2026, Overpriced. Held this stock 503 days. The market returned about 25% since entry and SLB returned nearly +34% (including dividends).
• BUY: DIS on Apr 24, 2026, downside price target -29%.
• BUY: OMC on Apr 24, 2026, downside price target -29%.
• BUY: GRP on May 1, 2026, downside price target -31%.
• BUY: NOW on May 1, 2026, downside price target -58%.
• BUY: CSGP on May 1, 2026, downside price target -46%.
• BUY: ZBH on May 8, 2026, downside price target -25%.
• ADD: TECH on May 8, 2026, continues to meet all buy requirements. BI Downside target -43%.
• ADD: DXCM on May 8, 2026, continues to meet all buy requirements. BI Downside target -63%.
• BUY: OXY on May 8, 2026, downside price target -38%.
• BUY: ERIE on May 29, 2026, downside price target -25%.
• BUY: CRL on May 29, 2026, downside price target -26%.
• ADD: CHTR on Jun 5, 2026, continues to meet all buy requirements. BI Downside target -69%.
• ADD: TMUS on Jun 5, 2026, continues to meet all buy requirements. BI Downside target -20%.
I will continue to track and update two different Portfolios in 2026. Both these portfolios will be held for the entire year.
2026 BI Managed Portfolio
The first portfolio (Managed) will be a continuation of last year picks that have not yet hit a Sell signal plus any new picks that qualify using the latest results. These are noted as “ADD” or “BUY” during each quarterly update. Year-to-date it is underperforming the market.
ALGN, TECH, CAH, CMG, EOG, TMUS, LKQ, CHTR, BALL, NVDA, MOS, MRK, PFE, PAYC, AKAM, KDP, TAP, SLB (sold), ALB, L, PYPL, CRM, EPAM (sold), AMZN, TTD (bought), DXCM (bought), HRL (bought), DIS (bought), OMC (bought), GPN (bought), NW (bought), CSGP (bought), ZBH (bought), ERIE (bought), CRL (bought)
BI Managed Portfolio Total Return Year-to-Date +2.9%
S&P 500 Total Return Year-to-Date +9.7%
The largest winner to date is CRL +46%.
The biggest loser this year is TTD -44%
The second portfolio (Current) will only include picks that qualified based on the Buy rules using the results at the very beginning of the current year and will be held for the entire year without change. Year-to-date it is underperforming the market.
2026 Current Portfolio
PCAR, ALGN, COO, CHTR, BALL, MOS, PFE, KDP, TAP TTD, SLB, CRM
BI Current Portfolio Total Return Year-to-Date -6.7%
S&P 500 Total Return Year-to-Date +9.7%
The largest winner to date is SLB +13.5%
The biggest loser this year is TTD -49%
Disclosures and Useful Terms
VL Date is the date of the last summary report update from Valueline as indicated in the post’s subject line. All data sources from the Valueline Dow30 reports are made publicly available on their website. https://research.valueline.com...
Current Price is the closing price of the stock as reported by VL, which is usually a few days behind the date
of the time period mentioned in this posting’s subject line.
• ROE/BV Updated is an indication if the stock’s BV and ROE have been updated through the end of the Benchmark evaluation time frame.
• 10Yr Down is the 10 year downside price. The company must have at least 7 years of non-negative ROE data to qualify.
• 10Yr Down4Qs is the 10 year downside price averaged over the previous 4 quarter’s valuation price.
• 10Yr Up is the 10 year upside price. The company must have at least 7 years of non-negative ROE data to qualify.
Both upside and downside are calculated using the method outlined in TTD book. Also, a discussion of calculating the upside and downside can be found here:
http://boards.fool.com/Message......
• %<10Y Downside is the current price divided by the 10 Yr downside expressed as a percentage.
• EPS Future Delta is the projected growth in EPS for the next 4 quarters versus the last four reported quarters.
• I use the latest EPS data from the VL spreadsheet which are updated as soon as new earnings are reported.
• Div Yield is the current % dividend payout ratio per share.
• 3-5 Y Low/Hi Price Est. is the downside/upside price estimate which is calculated using the projections of Book Value and ROE as discussed in TTD.
• Min VL Price Appreciation is the expected change in price from current price to low end VL projected 3-5 year appreciation price.
• VL Price 18 Price Appreciate is the VL projected % change in price from the current price within the next 18 months.
• ROE >2STD is part of a margin of safety consideration, which is briefly discussed in TTD on pg 70-71.
I compare the current year's ROE versus the last 10 years of ROE data. If the current ROE is greater than average (10 Yr ROE) + (2 * stdev(10 Yr ROE)), then this column is TRUE, else it is FALSE. This tells me that the stock's ROE is much higher than its historic average and should therefore be avoided.
-AllTooFoolish