Subject: Re: Berkshire's stock price
Well IMO it's exactly as you've just stated, you get Warren Buffett and CM for free. However I consider that recent demand and popularity in Berkshire is because of the Apple investment "his best ever".... this likely also having brought a new generation of investor interest.
You're also correct that his asset allocation has been mixed but it's a few winners that have produced the stellar returns, like apple, Coke, Geico. Mohnish Pabrai has a good lecture on YouTube discussing this where he states that after talking to Charlie he said something like out of the 200 or so investment decisions, take out the the best 12 and performance would be so so.
Some additional thoughts.
It used to be the case that there was a greater discount to Berkshires valuation due to Warren and Charlie's age, all the succession stuff that was dragging on for years. This was still present after the succession discussion was resolved however the valuation (demand) has been bolstered by the buy backs and popularity of the stock through the Apple story in my opinion, the buy backs though are a token gesture IMO, he'll not undertake a material amount as he'd rather add to his canvas.... the buybacks keep people happy and valuation propped up somewhat.
When you think about those 12 decisions, the opportunities going forward for stellar returns are less as it'll be hard to find anything like Apple again to move the needle, (caveated by saying, in the current market) there'll be a sell off and bargain prices again but they may not longer be with us.
I would still like to hear a lot more from T&T, all I've really heard is one 45 min talk at the Nebraska furniture mart, id also be interested to see the breakdown of their portfolios and returns in the annual letter. Also will their mantra be growth or merely preservation of wealth going forward and how they do they see investing globally vs Buffett eg would they be picking opportunities in China right now?
Personally Berkshire is still my largest holding but I've diversified away into other stocks Alphabet is my second largest, Meta,DIS and China (Tencent, BABA and JD) and some UK house builders. I'm perfectly happy with this I was having more sleepless nights thinking about Berkshire and single company risk (having 95% invested). The reason being on the old motley fool UK boards there was a guy called Jim Susan
who used to post on the lloyds board, his equity portfolio was entirely lloyds banking group (he liked dividends) being retired etc. He would write long rambling posts with stories about how it'd been around for 100 years and was a dividend champion etc etc, the motley fool would always push high dividend portfolios but there was no analysis about the underlying company, I realized out and about talking to people about stocks that everyone thought like this if they were interested in the stock market. Anyway, during the GFC lloyds were bailed out and shareholders wiped out. I never saw another post from that guy again, he would regularly get 100 plus likes so I assume he had many followers who did likewise. All those boards have gone now, lost to history but I still have the memory!