Subject: Analyzing S&P500 as a single company
The question investors should ask themselves is: if the S&P 500 was a single company, would I find it an attractive place to deploy capital? If so, how much of my capital?

Does a “company” that earns a 14% return on equity, pays out most of its earnings, could reasonably grow in the mid-single-digits, and is priced at 22x forward earnings offer a compelling or risky investment? I’d guess the answer is somewhere in between. To me, it’s not an obviously good investment, contains more risk and downside asymmetry than most times in recent memory, but also is unlikely, though not impossible, to be a train wreck over the next decade.

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