Subject: Re: 1 Year Out
Curious, if you had 20/20 hindsight that that time was a relative peak and lightened up (and did Not truly need the funds but were just being prudent), what % trim would you have considered-5/10/15%?
It's easy to sell a bunch when you think the valuation is a bit rich.
What's impossible is deciding rationally when to get back in.
Say the price dips a bit from where you sold. Will it dip more?
Or will it turn around and rise and never again visit even the level of this modest dip?
Since you can never know that it will reach any given level of cheapness, the only rational response is to buy back in again pretty promptly.
Meaning the round trip gain probably isn't going to be that great.
FWIW, I sold 44% of my BRK positions through March last year.
But I was already buying a lot of it back in May.
I made money on the round trip. It kept me off the streets. But the profit wasn't life changing.
Jim