Subject: Re: OT- Guy Spier on Podcast/ limited BRK discussion
If things remain much as they have been since 1995 in terms of growth of S&P 500 smoothed earnings and valuation levels, I'd expect something like inflation + 2.8%/year real total return from the S&P 500 in the next 7 years.

It may also be worth noting that, in the 25 years since 1998, both earnings growth and the P/E multiple are much higher than the historical average, so the condition that those 2 crucial factors both remain at their last-25-year levels is possibly a bit optimistic. If you used earnings growth rates and multiples from the previous 25 years, what would the annual return be, then? (I'm guessing it's negative')

dtv