Subject: Re: Risk-off Signal
Using QQQ at the close for opening long position 1/13 (OL $280.97) and 2/9 (CL $301.68) there was a 7.3% gain.

For the short position using QQQ 12/15(OS $276.23) and 1/6 (CS $268.80) there was a 2.7% gain.

Good point. With QQQ the result is better, although I suspect it could go the other way as well, QQQ being more volatile. I have added QQQ (your dates were slightly off) with these signals which are based on the S+P500 to a little table I made:

date		action		S+P500		price QQQ	return S+P	return QQQ
12/15/22	open short	3,895.75	276.23		
1/6/2023	close short	3,895.08	268.80		0.02%		2.76%
1/12/23		open long	3,983.17	279.05		
2/10/23		close long	4,090.46	299.7		2.69%		7.40%

Anyway, two trades from a blackbox system, or even 1 year of trades don't prove much. So I think I'll leave it at that, although for entertainment purposes I'm looking forward to seeing the next signals.

Anyone remember TimingCube? I never used them, but remember people posting that their system based on backtested results (which they presented as real trading results) worked for a good while, until it didn't. I think it turned out quite a desaster for some people.