Subject: Re: Unite Group (UTG), UK, falling knife.
Another random point that might be worth mentioning.

Unite have said that buying Empiric means that earnings/share would be down in 2026.

How could they know? Why don't they expect the Unite platform to bring occupancy up to Unite average levels quickly?

Do they have little faith in themselves to set things right at Empiric quickly?

The answer is: Students tend to book accomodation 6-12 months in advance, we're now in March 2026, so basically Empiric had already 'locked in' a bad year for 2026.

The best that can be hoped for in the current year for those properties is that Unite are able to achieve a partial improvement for the semester starting after the summer holidays.

Equally, that's why the bid was successful without paying a premium and at a discount to the ESP.L price in recent years.

And that's why Unite's projections say 'bid will be accretive to earnings in 2027' in the bid presentations etc.

(Additionally, reducing duplicated positions has an up front cost and takes a little time).

TRS