Subject: About That UK Trade Deal…
… Trump attempted to make a big deal about a trade agreement with the UK in the Oval Office today, but with all things Trump you have to wait a bit for the details. Bloomberg: “UK providing a polite reality check to Trump’s posts about a ‘full and comprehensive’ deal. UK-US deal will set out general terms of agreement. Will set framework for further negotiations. Focused on specific sectors, not a traditional free trade agreement.”

… UK official: “Despite Trump’s language, any agreement is likely to be limited. The UK-US deal has never been billed as a full-scale free trade pact, which typically take years to negotiate.”

… Economist Justin Wolfers: “It’s a framework, not a deal. The UK is our 11th largest trading partner. The average tariff the UK charges countries around the world is 1%. so the best we can do is knock the UK from 1% down to 0, and it’s already clear we didn’t get them down to 0. And along the way, Trump is imposed a 10% tariff on the UK making it harder for Americans to do business with trading partners in the UK. It’s a photo op with very little macroeconomic significance.”