Subject: Re: Buybacks
I am still perplexed, as I assume many of you are, that BRK began buybacks at $486 ish, publicly disclosed on cnbc, and then ceased to actively buyback as the stock dipped well below $486?. Unfortunately, we will need to wait 3 more months to see if anything changes on this front?
My only thoughts on this are:
a) BRK is not compelling at $465+ to BRK?
b) BRK had an acquisition opportunity come across their desk and stopped buybacks during the evaluation process?
Does anyone have any thoughts or additional explanations?
I think the most likely explanation is that the company doesn't (and shouldn't) engage in significant repurchases immediately prior to major information events. Berkshire discloses virtually nothing beyond SEC requirements except for this one particular annual event, which means this pre-meeting period is the period that should be buyback-free if the goal is to not take advantage of less-informed shareholders. I believe Buffett has always acted as if this were any important aspect of any buyback decision.
If management believes Berkshire is undervalued, the following sequence of events makes perfect sense to me:
* Let the market know (via a public announcement and small repurchase) that, unlike the last few years, management views Berkshire shares as reasonably valued. (This includes letting the market know that the new CEO is open to repurchases.)
* Refrain from buybacks during the pre-meeting period as an informal blackout period.
* Begin buybacks in volume after the meeting, when shareholders have been fully informed.
Now, if there are no buybacks after the meeting, I'm going to take that as a signal about what management thinks about the current stock price.