Subject: Re: Koch Network Backs Nikki
But Trump is running near 60% in primary polling. So even if everyone except (for example) Haley dropped out, and none of those supporters of other candidates went to Trump, he still wins the nomination. Something else would have to change amongst the Republican voters.

Yeah, it's still a long shot.

The one thing Haley has in her favor is the calendar. Three things about the calendar help her:

1) SC is early in the primary calendar, and is the first "winner-take-most" state. If she could win outright (and that's a mighty big if), she has a decent chance of becoming the delegate leader at that point - something that never happened during the 2016 primary, where after the narrow Iowa loss Trump led in delegates from that point forward. If there's an actual non-Trump candidate who is leading, you could see the "non-Trump" and the "I like Trump but think he'd have trouble beating Biden" coalition consolidate. But of course, she'd need De Santis out of the race soon after SC.

2) Unlike 2016, there's eight states (plus DC and the VI) that have primaries/caucuses before Super Tuesday - so a momentum candidate has a little more "space" in the calendar to pick up visible wins before the big blast on March 5.

3) Florida isn't a Super Tuesday state, and California is. So unlike 2016, where Cruz was almost certain to hang in the race through Super Tuesday, it is at least a little plausible that De Santis might drop out earlier.

But that's still very, very unlikely. Trump is super-popular in the GOP. Once you get past SC, it's hard to see another state that Haley could win. And De Santis has more than enough money and plausibility to hang in the race until Trump clinches, and no real incentive to drop out.