Subject: Re: Goog vs Msft
If alphabet grow their earnings at 12% over the next 3 years ($13.19) and have a 30 x multiple, that's $395 per share. Interesting.

12% would be pretty tame relative to recent EPS growth:

	        EPS	EPS YOY	REV 	REV YOY
Dec 31, 2012	$0.80		$46	
Dec 31, 2013	$0.94	17.50%	$56	20.59%
Dec 31, 2014	$1.03	9.57%	$66	18.88%
Dec 31, 2015	$1.14	10.78%	$75	13.62%
Dec 31, 2016	$1.39	21.95%	$90	20.38%
Dec 31, 2017	$0.90	-35.47%	$111	22.80%
Dec 31, 2018	$2.19	143.32%	$137	23.42%
Dec 31, 2019	$2.46	12.49%	$162	18.30%
Dec 31, 2020	$2.93	19.22%	$183	12.77%
Dec 31, 2021	$5.61	91.49%	$258	41.15%
Dec 31, 2022	$4.56	-18.74%	$283	9.78%
Dec 31, 2023	$5.80	27.19%	$307	8.68%
Dec 31, 2024	$8.04	38.62%	$350	13.87%
2025 (est.)	$9.93	23.51%	$394	12.57%

The above is EPS and Revenue for Alphabet going back a bit, with analyst estimates for 2025 (half year of results are in). EPS CAGR has been over 20% for a healthy stretch now, sales growth has been more modest outside of the exploding Cloud business (a decent graphic: https://www.reddit.com/r/Infog...). 2017 was a one off due to an impairment related to the Tax Act.

I don't know what a fair multiple should be, but Mr. Market is shaving off over several hundreds of billions of market cap (relative to GOOG's average or median P/E) on the expectation that this won't be close to a continuing story. There are risks (regulatory, pricing depreciation from the massive capex, the changing world of search), but I think there's a decent margin of safety here.