Subject: Re: OT 2025 Best Idea - Evolution AB
Listening to talking-head forecasts is a waste of time, but I have often found that the Bank Credit Analyst is somewhat better than a coin toss. They tend to watch the big money flows and figure out what that will lead to. One of their prominent analysts thinks the S&P 500 will hit 3800 at some point in 2025, which rather startled me.

Continuing off off topic, just more about that--FWIW, a longer quote from BCA below


"Back in 2022, when most pundits were expecting an imminent US recession, Peter Berezin was one of the few strategists arguing that growth would surprise on the upside. Then, in 2023, he accurately predicted an immaculate disinflation. This kept him bullish on stocks. Now, however, Peter thinks the US will fall into a recession in 2025 and that the S&P 500 will end the year at 4450. Find out why he is now the most bearish forecaster - by far - in the Bloomberg survey.

In Peter's 2025 Outlook: Dispatches From The Future you'll uncover:
* A Looming Recession: Why the US will enter a recession in 2025, and global growth will slow significantly despite China's stimulus efforts.
* The End of the AI Boom: AI stock euphoria will fade. The S&P 500 will decline, with defensive sectors like consumer staples, health care, and utilities outperforming.
* A Bond Market Roller Coaster: Treasury yields will spike and then decline, while credit spreads will widen due to economic uncertainty and policy changes.
* Currencies and Commodities: The US dollar will be whipsawed in 2025, with the bond market riot weighing on the greenback, while the recession provides support. The yen will be the top-performing currency. Oil and industrial metals will suffer on the back of the global recession. Gold will end up beating bitcoin."

I wouldn't actually *believe* this sort of punditry, and year end index targets are best for making jokes. But reading bearish things from time to time broadens one's appreciation of the range of things possible and gets you away from the always-buy-all-the-time echo chamber from the sell side. And, as mentioned, unlike most talking heads I've found these folks to be somewhat better than random. Once upon a time I made a *lot* of money acting on their currency direction gut feels. My bank let me change the currency of my huge mortgage, and in two timely swaps the balance owed was down almost by half. I appreciate that this was largely luck, but it was also on their advice, so I'm not sure if it's my luck or theirs.

Anyone interested can ask for their 2025 outlook paper for free, though you will get on a mailing list for their extremely expensive subscriptions. I gave up when the single subscription I liked became too painful. They are really aimed only at institutions.

Jim