Subject: Re: Marker: December 9, 2024
IOW, the MAGA folks aren't in a fight with the 0.1%. They're in a fight with the upper 10%. And if they can join with the 0.1% to push back on the rest of the upper 9.9%, they'll gladly make that alliance.
I disagree. Trump won because lower-middle income voters thought they were doing worse than 4 years ago. They just want to see some progress in their personal finances. There is no fight with some other income group.
In the last 16 years, Democratic presidential candidates gained votes from the richest third and lost votes from the poorest third. Why is unclear. Maybe the richest third realize Democratic presidents are better for the overall economy and the climate. Maybe the poorest third are concerned about trade policies, immigration and inflation.
Democratic-Republican margin (% pts) in US presidential elections, by income group, change 2008 to 2024:
Richest third: Increased from -25% to 7%
Middle third: about zero
Poorest third: Decreased from 25% to 0%
Exit polls of the presidential election in the United States in 2024, share of votes by household income, Harris Percent minus Trump Percent
Under 30k: 4%
30k to 50k: -8%
50k to 100k: -5%
100k to 200k: 4%
Above 200k: 6%
Trump won in the 30k to 100k household income bracket, or about 20th to 60th percentile. This group has a tighter budget to live on, and so was more affected by inflation. Real Median Household Income fell 1.5% per year between 2019 and 2022, because of the pandemic and the ensuing inflation.
2023 Household Income at Selected Percentiles
18,980 for the 10th percentile
80,610 for the 50th percentile (median)
234,900 for the 90th percentile
Annual Growth Rate of Real Median Household Income:
From To Years CAGR
2007 2012 5 -1.6%
2019 2022 3 -1.5%
1989 1993 4 -1.4%
1999 2004 5 -0.6%
2004 2007 3 1.4%
1984 1989 5 1.9%
1993 1999 6 2.3%
2012 2019 7 3.1%
2022 2023 1 4.0%
Real Median Household Income in the United States
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...