Subject: BCC Updated to 06/18/2026
The three bear catchers have remained firmly in BULL mode from April 15th to present. Clearly, it is not as easy as some may think to develop a sound method for daily tracking these three indicators. It relies on quality data, and from what I've read in the various posts just now, that is a hurdle that is not easily passed.
If you go to the horse's mouth, so to speak, you find there are 3,370 components in the Nasdaq.
https://indexes.nasdaq.com/Ind...
For Operating Companies Only I show 2,170 as of Thursday's close.
This is an explanation of the values originally developed by Robbie in GTR1.
Signal SMA NH/NL DBE
0 Bear Bear Bear
1 Bull Bear Bear
2 Bear Bull Bear
3 Bull Bull Bear
4 Bear Bear Bull
5 Bull Bear Bull
6 Bear Bull Bull
7 Bull Bull Bull
Here is what the signals have been since the start of 2025:
Date Signal SMA NH/NL DBE
20260618 7 Bull Bull Bull
20260415 7 Bull Bull Bull
20260409 3 Bull Bull Bear
20260408 7 Bull Bull Bull
20260309 5 Bull Bear Bull
20260105 7 Bull Bull Bull
20251226 5 Bull Bear Bull
20251128 7 Bull Bull Bull
20251031 5 Bull Bear Bull
20250813 7 Bull Bull Bull
20250801 5 Bull Bear Bull
20250626 7 Bull Bull Bull
20250617 5 Bull Bear Bull
20250604 7 Bull Bull Bull
20250508 5 Bull Bear Bull
20250409 4 Bear Bear Bull
20250207 5 Bull Bear Bull
20250205 7 Bull Bull Bull
20250131 5 Bull Bear Bull
20250130 7 Bull Bull Bull
20250129 5 Bull Bear Bull
20250124 7 Bull Bull Bull
20250108 5 Bull Bear Bull
20250103 7 Bull Bull Bull
How might one use this information. One method I use is to invest in QLD (NDXx2) when all three are BULL, and move to SPY(SP5x1) when any of them are in BEAR mode. Here is what that would look like from 2025 to present. So this about doubles the return of the S&P 500 with a similar maximum drawdown at -18.90% for the S&P 500.
Dates Trades Metric Value
1/3/2025 Bull ROI 61.05%
1/8/2025 Bear CAGR 38.79%
1/24/2025 Bull GSD 35.02
1/29/2025 Bear Sharpe 1.12
1/30/2025 Bull DDD3 1.11%
1/31/2025 Bear BBW 26.09
2/5/2025 Bull Drawdown -21.22%
2/7/2025 Bear Bullish 54.12%
6/4/2025 Bull Bearish 21.06%
6/17/2025 Bear SP500 ROI 27.32%
6/26/2025 Bull SP500 CAGR 18.07%
8/1/2025 Bear
8/13/2025 Bull
10/31/2025 Bear
11/28/2025 Bull
12/26/2025 Bear
1/5/2026 Bull
3/9/2026 Bear
4/8/2026 Bull
4/9/2026 Bear
4/15/2026 Bull