Subject: Re: Let’s See If This Pans Out for Putin
Then you could say that, instead of the other things that you do say. No one's "sentencing" Ukraine to anything.

I have said that.

It might help "break the running loop" if you framed this issue as something that you and the board agreed on, rather than framing it as if the board was doing something improper by not "wanting to go there." You don't want to go there either.

Ahem. Has anyone other than myself expressed a single idea in this thread other than 'stay the course'?

I think this fundamentally misreads China. China tends to use orderly methods to advance their interest, not chaotic interests. The old Soviet Union thrived on chaotic situations in the third world, and was keen to foster rebellions and uprisings and coups and insurgencies and failed states and so on. China hasn't really run that playbook. They are far more likely to use institutions and deals and orderly connections in their non-military dealings - and while they'll use or threaten force, they are very precise and not chaotic.

It doesn't misread China at all. You missed the fifth "win" in their W column - they don't have to lift a finger. Recall the old saw about the sign for crisis in Chinese is a combo of "danger" and "crucial point in time". They don't need to be the chaos agent if somebody else is happy to be (Islamic extremists, Russians, cartels, whomever). They're happy to use proxies to further their goals.

It literally doesn't get any more Chinese than that.

So, no - I think it is highly unlikely that China rides to Russia's rescue once they run out of money.

They're selling Russia lots of military consumables plus buying their oil. In other words, their support is transactional and based on finances. Again...they don't really have to do anything other than extend Putin a line of credit.

Watch for them to start demanding concessions and/or joint ventures in mineral extraction out on Russia's western frontier.

You're right in pointing out that China definitely gets some benefits from that. But they're not going to put their own necks on the line by choosing a side here, just as they have studiously avoided doing so far.

They don't have to put their necks out there. Why would they? They're getting all this for free.