Subject: Re: My new Program
Turns out that all three outperform during different market conditions. Putting them together in a backtest doesn’t increase the return so much as it tends to smooth the ride.

As for timing, the ONLY market condition to care about is bear markets. Which are long runs of more than 20% down. As opposed to corrections which are short sharp drops that are quickly recovered. Unpleasant as it is, we have to take many 20% drops so that we avoid the grinding 40% drops.

And apparently it is bear market signals when and only when the economy is not doing well, as signalled by a few economic indicators.



Been doing this for several years now and so far, it seems to be working.

Yes. But the problem is that we've been in a bull market since 2009. The best timing strategy since then is buy and hold. All timing schemes had worse return.

S&P500 6/2009 - 3/2024:
B&H CAGR 14.3% MaxDD -32% Sortino 2.48
GTT CAGR 12.5% MaxDD -18% Sortino 2.63
SMA CAGR 8.1 MaxDD -22% Sortino 0.45 (43 week SMA)