Subject: Re: An analysis of my timing signals
I would say that between 2019 and now, what you are measuring is just random noise in a noisy rising market.

SPY started at 250 and now is 662. With 2 sharp, short corrections and one 9 month long dip.

The two corrections, if you got out you sold near the bottom and missed out on the equally sharp recovery.

The 2022 dip, you would probably gotten smacked by the 2 whipsaws (4/2022 and 8/2022)

Timing is hard and most timing schemes take you out of the market too frequently.

[BTW, yahoo charts suck these days.]
Look at SPY 1/2006 to 1/2010. That's what Ken Fisher describes as a typical bear market, and what some here have called "rounded top". A slow decline and then a plunge. The goal of timing is to swallow the lumps of the first part of the decline and get out before the plunge.

FWIW, the GTT timing I use signaled to get out on 1/6/2008 and stayed out until 6/7/2009. (The bottom was 3/2/2009.)



"A stock market correction is a market index's significant, but temporary, decline of at least 10% but less than 20% from its recent peak. These declines are common and natural, often triggered by factors like rising inflation, negative economic data, or shifts in market sentiment, and they typically resolve without developing into a prolonged bear market"

" Corrections are relatively common in the stock market and are considered a normal part of the economic and market cycle. "