Subject: Re: Berkshire future returns
"What are future returns?"

As Yogi Berra said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Nevertheless, here are some historical data since Dec 1999 that may be useful.

BV per share statistics:
- 26-year BV per share growth, least squares, Dec 1999 - Dec 2025, 10.9%/yr
- 26-year BV per share growth r^2, Dec 1999 - Dec 2025, 0.991

Return statistics:
- 26-year annualized return, Dec 1999 - Dec 2025, 10.5%
- average 1-yr return, 11.8%
- average 3-yr return, 10.5% (3-year returns have a skewed normal distribution.)
- average 5-yr return, 10.3%
- average 10-yr return, 9.3%
- least squares 3-yr return when starting from latest quarter's ending P/B (1.41), 12.0%
- least squares 5-yr return when starting from latest quarter's ending P/B (1.41), 9.7%

If BV and price continue to grow over the next several years as they have for the last 26 years, then the nominal 3-year return from today's P/B might be expected to be in the 12%/yr range. However, unlike the smoothness of BV growth, 3-year price returns show a great deal of scatter, ranging (starting from today's P/B) from about -2%/yr to 21%/yr. What would Yogi say?