Subject: Re: OT: S&P versus T-Bills?
1950 is close to a CAPE low; July 2024 close to a CAPE peak.

If we’re testing a a timing model that takes CAPE as its guide...

CAPE is useless as a timing guide*. You probably shouldn't even think of it that way. However it has outstanding predictive power for what you'll likely make over the longer term. For example, expectations for the 5-10 year horizon. It is the best single input for retirement planning, for example.

CAPE often gives you a pretty good idea of the likely returns from now until half way up the NEXT bull. Or half way down the next bear.

Jim

*The only exception is that when things are very cheap based on CAPE, it tends to pay off very quickly and pretty reliably.