Subject: Re: OT: Jim's take on the market
I would appreciate if you can share a little bit about what are the companies that you see implausibly cheap.

It's not a simple question. Certainly a dangerous one to answer.

Firms that are ostensibly cheap are generally that way for a reason. Sometimes a good reason, sometimes not.
So to believe that such a firm is *truly* cheap requires disagreeing with the market consensus of the relative importance of the obvious flaws.
You don't want to disagree without knowing something about the firm, so you can form your own opinion about whether the problem is a big one or not.

An example would be Bread Financial, BFH.
The stock price is barely a tenth of what it was five years ago.
They're expected to make in the vicinity of $10 a share this year and next, but the stock price is under $30.
So clearly the market thinks they are in real trouble, and those earnings will not last.
Plus, of course, they're expected to make a little less money next year than they will have done this year. A shrinking trajectory is never popular.
I have followed and owned the firm for quite a while, and it certainly hasn't done me any good.
But it is perhaps worth reading about them and forming your own opinion.

Another example might be Tupperware, TUP.
They are expected to make $0.83 next year, compared to a current price of $0.75.
Despite being in the "seemingly cheap" category, this one I won't touch.
I remember Mr Buffett saying, when asked about the future of newspapers: ask yourself, if they didn't exist, would somebody have to invent them?

Other firms seem cheap to me because they are not obviously cheap on current business results, but I believe their growth trajectory to be sufficiently assured that they seem quite cheap relative to conservatively estimated future prospects.
When looking for serious value I like firms trading at under 10 times my estimate of the "pretty darned sure" average real EPS 5-10 years from now, preferably even less.
For example, I think Dollar General (DG) can manage a bit more than the ~5.5%/year real EPS growth that would require.
The future does not necessarily resemble the past, but EPS grew about nominal 19.5%/year in the last five years. Unusually good years, but still, not bad.
They know how to make a buck.

My comment was more of a macro one: there are many firms that are ostensibly cheap, perhaps more than usual.
On average there are around 150-160 stocks in the Value Line 1700 trading at under 10 times their estimate of current earnings.
At the moment it's closer to 300.
Which of those might actually be good investments at this juncture is a very different question.

Jim