Subject: Re: 135% return on mungofitch's "esoteric op
Um, simply buying and holding SPY since that date in 2020 would have resulted in a 154% gain.

I don't doubt your figure. But you would have had to put up the cash to buy SPY. The futures contracts have a lot of built in leverage, and have been in a profitable situation almost since the post, so one's account cash balance would have been rising along the way. That cash in turn could have been earning money in other ways during the interval.

Not to mention that current S&P valuation levels would not have been predicted by any sane person. Outliers are not the norm : ) In the last few years almost any investment strategy looked dumb compared to holding the S&P. Sadly that wasn't knowable in advance.

Speaking of knowable in advance, here's a fun observation:
Imagine a die-hard old-skool MI fan restarted YLDEARNYEAR 1-10 monthly in April 2020 after the pandemic dip.
First year: beat the S&P by 28.5%
Second year: beat the S&P by 18.6%
Third year: beat the S&P by 32.6%
Fourth year: beat the S&P by 8.1% *

Overall four-year CAGR for the strategy: 42.6% versus S&P 20.1%.
Presumably with a lot less risk of permanent capital loss: all the firms purchased have high earnings and high dividends.

Jim

* (one month of data missing, I used the S&P return that month as a proxy)