Subject: Re: Let’s See If This Pans Out for Putin
The reason that 1pg might be mentioning it is that typically it's an insurgency that's doing it, because typically the bigger country hasn't failed to manage defeating the formal army the way Russia has.

For the record, I didn't mention it until you responded to him mentioning it. All I said was that you were correct that Ukraine hadn't reached the insurgency stage. They are still a viable government with an active military. If that ends, then (and only then) may there be an insurgency. Or, in Europe, I think they usually call them "partisans". I've seen no evidence of partisans operating in Ukraine, yet.

We don't need any Americans in the fight.

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You can't have negotiations with Russia unless Russia reaches the point where it is willing to give something up in exchange for the war ending.

Correct on both counts. And no other country's troops are needed, either. The Ukrainians just need armor, bullets, shells, and other materiel.

And Putin will not negotiate in good faith until he is desperate. He's not quite there yet. The "wonks" I follow expect it to reach that point early next year, which I believe I posted commentary a few months ago. At that point, he's going to have to make some hard choices. He simply is running out of equipment, based on satellite imagery. He's going to have to shift to war-time military production to continue much longer. That will have all sorts of consequences domestically. His only real supplier is DPRK, and reports estimate that roughly 1/3 of the shells he's getting from them don't work. And there is no indication they are supplying barrels. You have to replace barrels (tanks and artillery). Usually between 1000-2000 rounds fired, depending on specifics of the system. He's having to make those himself.