Subject: Re: OT: regress to the mean
Another paraphrase: avoid investing in war zones.

Well, sure. Ferengi rule of acquisition #34.

But this advice does present a conundrum: if you have a crystal ball able to forecast where that will happen, you might as well just use the crystal ball to find out future stock prices too.

After all, certain very large countries in North America are not immune to civil wars and revolutions. If (if) the chances of something happening are non-zero and not decreasing, it'll definitely happen from time to time.

Jim