Subject: ESPR - the Esperion thread
I already started dumping ESPR info on the ESPR board, so just pointing folks back that way.

https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid...

It is my top investment idea at the moment.
Not sure if it will pay off before year end or linger into 2025, but I will be a bit surprised if I am still in the stock in 2026.

The only reason I would still be in the stock in 2026 is if they chose to go the Partnership route for the US market vs a Buyout. A buyout pretty much ends my investment (duh) but a partnership would mean Esperion has:

1. upfront money (likely) in any partnership deal for US.
2. recurring royalties for a US partnership deal.
3. existing royalties from DSE (European market) will revert back to Esperion once OMERS is paid off - projected by me to be 2028 or earlier.
4. Otsuka royalties for Japan market.
5. Milestone payments from both Otsuka and DSE over time. (Esperion maintained the DSE milestone rights)
6. All of the above pay the bills and then some, and allow focus on the Next-Gen of drugs/indications/pipeline

#6 is supposed to be advertised at some point in 1H-25. They are awaiting patent approvals on their IP before they talk openly about it. Seemed like they were hoping to do that in Q4, but it has pushed a bit. If #6 seems legit and promising, holding on to the stock may be a longer-term winner than cashing out in a Buyout short-term.

But there are risks in a Partnership and I like the idea of a Buyout and taking my gains in the short-term best.

Will see how it all unfolds.
Next ER not until Nov...so we have some dead air time until then, barring any surprise news.
Script data continues to be leaked, and seems positive. Scripts are an analogue for revenue growth, but not 100% aligned.

Dreamer