Subject: Re: Unite Group (UTG), UK, falling knife.
(This comment is written entirely by hand without any use of AI in any way! I just like bullet point lists.)

Hello everyone. Here are my thoughts on the results. Please remember to double check anything I claim, in case I've made a mistake.

Results
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https://www.londonstockexchang...


Short version
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The -10% price move is very weird because there is very little new information in these results.

You can read these numbers preannounced in the Oct/Dec/Jan trading updates.

So much for the efficient market hypothesis... :-)


Background
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- Most UK REITs have moved up 10-15% since December lows when UTG was previously at the 520p level. The UK market as a whole has also moved up a bit.

- UTG buybacks have been underway for 6 weeks, a steady 150000 shares/day, which is about 7% of average daily trading volume. Total so far about 5m shares. Total shares in issue are 542m. So the buyback is progressing at about 1% of the company being bought back every 6 weeks. The current buyback is £100m (approx 4 months supply). The company has indicated buybacks are going to be the norm going forward as capital is freed up. I would expect the buyback to be extended if the price is still low in a few months time.

- Like Berkshire, REITs are best viewed in terms of 'lookthrough earnings' which strip out the effect of asset price volatility (e.g. if Berkshire's portfolio goes up 10%, the p/e looks amazing, if the portfolio goes down 10%, 'BERKSHIRE REPORTS HUGE LOSS' etc, but underlying earnings tend to be steady and upwards). The exception to this is when REIT assets are on a consistent trend up or down and not just wobbling around with the effect of interest rates, local market rents/prices etc. This year is a 'bad' year for Unite in relation to this effect.

- Emerging February market narrative of "HALO" - what can you buy that won't be affected by AI?

- Warming relations between UK & EU and also between UK & china, which are primary sources of students that use student accomodation.

- Ongoing situation in USA is not encouraging foreign students.



Today's results good/bad
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Odd: There is very little 'new' news in the results? Almost everything was pre-announced already last year, see references below.

Odd: -10% price move this morning extremely odd given the lack of 'news'. A chunky dividend, paid soon, is included in today's price.

Good: Sale of a large property at a good price. See below.

Bad/neutral: Adjusted EPS fell within the range forecast by Unite in the previous trading statements (47.5-48.25), but at the low end (47.5). Slightly bad.

Good: LTV debt was forecast to be 29% (October 2025) but is only 27%, despite the drop in NAV by 2%.

Neutral: Cost of debt 4.1%. As forecast October last year. Not news.

Neutral/bad: Empiric 89% occupancy exactly as forecast in November 2025. Not news.

Bad: NAV down 2%, relating to rents/prices changing across the country in some areas, may reflect interest rates having been higher in 2025. e.g. NAV 2024 920p, NAV 2025 980p, NAV 2026 955p.

Good: Rents going up like-for-like at both Empiric and Unite.

Neutral/good: Good progress integrating Empiric into the Unite sales/marketing platform, de-duplicating positions.

Bad: Unite had forecast that 2026 earnings would fall because of the Empiric bid by -10%. EPS guidance range is now 41.5-43. The low end of that range is -13%. The midpoint is -11%. The high end is -9%.

Good: big increase in demand / offers for student places at the universities where Unite operates.

Neutral/good: IT platform upgrade spending is coming to an end in 2026.

Neutral: Expansion projects at 3 land sites being reconsidered, 3 other projects delayed. Good for buybacks, good in that limits on supply are good for rents, bad in the sense there are no cheap/easy routes to expansion.

Bad: £22 million loss on interest rate swaps. Unsure here; I think it may have been they bought protection against rate rises, but rates went down.

Neutral/bad: rents are up, but costs (staffing) and occupancy meant margins dropped from 68% to 66%. In line with previous trading statements. Neutral in that it's not news, bad because margin decline is bad.

Bad. Dividend up 1%. I would rather it kept up with inflation. However, as long as they are using cash for buybacks at these prices, I can live with it.

Neutral: Section 6 indicates there's 'no adjustments' to news from Jan 1st->Feb 24th this year that hasn't already been announced.


Sale of property
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https://www.investegate.co.uk/...

Basically, they retain partial ownership, get £100m cash and continue to get paid for managing the property on behalf of institutions.

Good: sold at 1% below Dec 2025 book value.

Good: hinting at buybacks: "releasing capital for reinvestment into higher-returning opportunities in accordance with our capital allocation priorities". Buybacks please!


Previous trading statement
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In the previous trading update they mentioned they had cancelled a struggling/delayed project where there had been lots of local opposition to building. This resulted in a one-off charge of £10m for the wasted effort. This has freed up a lot of capital for buybacks, which are likely a better option than if the project had continued. It's mentioned again in the results today.


References
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Empiric bid presentation last year, August.

https://www.unitegroup.com/wp-...

Trading update, October 2025.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/...

Trading update, Jan 2026.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/...

Empiric update, Jan 2026.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/...

Empiric update, Oct 2026.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/...

TRS