Subject: Re: NDX 100 Momentum Strategy - Code Repository
1. Core continuous results table (MOST important)
Key rows to show:
Strategy CAGR Sharpe Max DD
Mom 1 33.7% 0.780 -81%
Mom 1 timed 37.0% 0.855 -76%
Mom 5 23.8% 0.742 -69%
Mom 5 timed 23.6% 0.790 -50%
Mom 10 21.2% 0.735 -71%
Mom 10 timed 21.8% 0.813 -48%
SPY 10.5% 0.626 -55%
QQQ 10.0% 0.488 -83%
2. Worst rolling returns
Strategy Worst 1Y Worst 3Y Worst 5Y Worst 10Y
Mom 10 timed -25.5% -4.8% 1.8% 5.1%
SPY -43.3% -14.5% -2.3% 1.2%
QQQ -67.6% -25.0% -9.4% 0.7%
worst-case 5-year and 10-year outcomes beat the market
3. Start-date sensitivity test
“first trading day of any month” test is excellent.
Strategy Avg Start CAGR Worst
Mom 1 timed 28.0% 3.8%
Mom 5 timed 18.2% 6.4%
Mom 10 timed 16.9% 7.1%
SPY 11.3% 4.1%
4. Lookback sweep (short version)
Just summarize:
Top-1 best: ~18 month momentum
Top-10 best: ~9 month momentum
1-month holding period best
5. Profit concentration
Top winners contribution:
Strategy Top 1% Top 5% Top 10%
Mom 10 9.4% 27.0% 39.3%
The strategy is not dependent on one giant winner.
This statistic helps credibility.
6. Drawdown improvement from timing filter
Strategy Max DD
Mom 10 -71.6%
Mom 10 timed -48.0%
That’s a massive improvement.
But importantly:
timing did not always improve CAGR
Worst 10-year return still beats SPY