Subject: Re: No sign of riots...
That they're not going to continue to shape their foreign policy efforts to line up with those of the United States. Such as what happened today, when Germany (and the rest of the EU) pursued a different resolution on Ukraine than happened today.

Here's what you're missing: there was no serious movement on peace talks until we dug in.

less sharing of sensitive intelligence information, fewer "heads up" and consultations in foreign policy and other decisions, etc. Expect the formal actions of NATO to also be a little less deferential to the direction that the US might want to steer it as well.

LOL. You do realize that the vast majority of signals intel and satellite data comes from us, right? There's a line of countries wanting to join Five Eyes.

Who knows? The most likely cause of problems isn't an issue directly between the Great Powers, but something that happens within those Powers' spheres of influence (it's often the Balkans). For example, you get one "team" that lines up with Greece, and another "team" that lines up with Turkey - and a conflict between Greece and Turkey ends up spiraling out of control.

It's not 1911 anymore, my dude.

Once you start kicking that away, the chances of conflict on the Continent go way up.

No. The Europeans had 2 rounds of total continental war in the last century and they don't want that anymore.

If you throw away the Pax Americana because we can't be bothered to enforce it any more, what replaces it will be more dangerous (and ultimately more dangerous to us, IMHO).

Again, no. Here's what your "Pax Americana" looks like:

https://x.com/MarcherReborn/st...

A reality check for Macron and the EU. Without the US there is no NATO, to build a comparable EU Army will take a seismic distribution of current EU spending plans.
You can have all the hissy fits you want over Vance’s speech, but a federalist EU army will NEVER happen


If you don't want to click the link, what it's showing you is a pie chart. A pie chart that shows the US spend >70% of all the money NATO has for defense. Your notion of a massively armed Europe out bashing each other or threatening the US is unrealistic: to arm up to that level they'd need to tear down their social support structures to pay for it.

They'll NEVER do that.

Here's another point for you to ponder:
https://x.com/petespiliakos/st...

Here's a tip: Just stop freeloading. Poland pays it's share in defense and has been more directly impacted by the dislocations of the Ukraine War but they get along with Trump better than you because paying their share creates the basis for mutual respect.

The Poles get it. The Germans, French and Brits don't.

That unless we continually support and reinforce the global international framework that provides collective security for Europe (rather than individual national security) one significantly likely outcome of the resulting fragmentation of national security interests is that you'll get a conflict that spreads into a military conflict

Again: No. You used the word "Collective". Right now the US is the sole guarantor of Europe's security because the Europeans are barely investing in their own defense.

Kier Starmer is visiting the White House next week. He's going to tell Trump that he's going to go from 2% to 2.5% of GDP on his defense budget. Trump will likely tear him a new one anyone for them basically tanking the readiness of their armed forces.

In Europe, you have about 40+ separate nations crammed into an area about the size of the US - most of them wealthy industrial powers,

Wealthy, eh? How true is that? Here's another stat for you to ponder:

https://www.euronews.com/busin...

Mississippi, the poorest state in the United States, is close to surpassing Europe's largest economy Germany's GDP per capita. Euronews Business compares US states with European countries.

The poorest US state's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita is higher than that of Europe's top five economies, except for Germany. However, Mississippi competes closely with Germany, with a difference of just €1,500.

And here's another stat.

https://x.com/Big_Picture_89/s...

Europe’s regulatory regime makes capital investment impossible, and has resulted in zero innovation and growth.

Home Depot alone is now worth more than all the major companies founded in the EU over the last 50 years combined.