Subject: Re: OT: S&P versus T-Bills?
But the fact that QQQ has done better than QQQE lately is a fluke
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Start QQQE Return QQQ Return Ratio QQQ/QQQE...

No one disputes that QQQ has done better in the past, including many sub-periods.
The point is that this observation has zero predictive power.

This great has been the result of several tosses of the dice. Great for those who rolled the dice, but it can not be extrapolated. The performance of QQQ has an extremely large random component which most people, if they were fully aware of it, would probably not want from their investments. The top few stocks in QQQ dominating the difference between the two choices. If you have strong and well informed ideas about the future long term returns of those specific stocks, then you should place wagers on those specific stocks, not QQQ. Nobody else should have a position in QQQ, because they'd be investing in a very concentrated way in something they can't assess. The biggest 9 positions are half the assets, even after the recent weight pruning and rebalancing.

Though I can't say it describes this specific future--my theme is its unpredictability--it's worth noting that the very largest cap firms in the whole market have historically performed *considerably* worse than those that are a bit smaller. The recent result might continue or might not, but it is a historical anomaly.

Jim