Subject: Re: No sign of riots...
Depends on what Putin is willing to agree to in order to end the war.

That's not the question I asked. The battlefield is a stalemate right now.
The Ukrainians don't have the dudes, the firepower or the money to push the Russkies all the way out.

The odds are zero if Ukraine goes to the negotiating table agreeing that Russia gets to keep 100% of the territor

How do you know that's what's being discussed? You don't.

And the odds of Russia having to agree to something more than just "we get everything we have" go up very high indeed if the US and EU continue to support Ukraine.

I get that you guys loathe Trump and think he's the First Coming of Stupid, but you folks need to move past that in the worst way. Go talk to any Ukrainian. Anyone at all. What you'll learn is that Putin's invasion is now what amounts to a Holy War between the two countries. Putin's made generations of enemies among them as what he's done is beyond unforgiveable.

What you guys aren't getting is that the Ukrainians don't have much left in the tank to fight. They need time to regroup, re-arm and rebuild their entire national economy. For example - how much steel is Mariupol producing right now? Zero, since Putin's army is occupying it. How much grain are they growing given their fields are full of mines?

Because countries have other aims and objectives and needs other than just avoiding war, and sometimes those end up ruling the day....and a minor dispute becomes a minor skirmish becomes a contained dispute becomes a broader conflict becomes a significant multiparty war.

Well they need guns and dudes and most importantly, the support of their people to flippantly go to war with each other. What does the average Euro think about continental security?

https://www.economist.com/euro...
“With politicians bickering about pensions and social spending, and loth to raise taxes, the reality is of a continent unwilling to inconvenience itself for something so trifling as fending off a potential invader. Europeans want more military spending, sure; some churn out ludicrous soundbites about building a ‘war economy.’ But God forbid that anyone make voters endure the cost of it.”

and

https://www.cato.org/commentar...
Until Trump’s election in 2016, the Europeans were getting along just fine, including with Washington. The United States did the tough jobs, most importantly, defending the free world from communism and related threats. The Europeans focused on fun, creating bountiful welfare states at home and providing generous foreign aid to assorted Third World governments. Everyone was happy, more or less.

To be sure, American officials whined and complained about NATO allies preferring butter to guns. Robert Gates gave a particularly surly valedictory speech suggesting that the system was unsustainable: “The blunt reality is that there will be dwindling appetite and patience in the U.S. Congress—and in the American body politic writ large—to expend increasingly precious funds on behalf of nations that are apparently unwilling to devote the necessary resources or make the necessary changes to be serious and capable partners in their own defense.”

...lest you think it's merely Trump The Troglodyte telling them to pay for their own defense.

But let's go on. How much atrophy has set in?
A recent Kiel Institute report described the failure in excruciating detail: “Meaningful increases in procurement activity did not begin until more than one year after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Since then, orders have remained rather small in size. [Even if 123 tanks ordered] are delivered quickly, Germany would still have only 440 main battle tanks—compared to 2400 back in 2004. For other weapon systems, the numbers look even less favorable.” Overall, the study shockingly concludes: “Our findings show that it will take decades if not centuries to build up similar capacities to 2004 at current procurement speeds. When taking into account commitments to Ukraine, we even document that procurement for some weapon systems is insufficient to replace commitments and existing deterrence capabilities are actually falling.”

Get that?

Those aren't jus the Chinese numbers. Outside estimates give it a similar range, roughly half that of the U.S.

Then what should concern you is how much bang for the buck they're getting. They're putting more hulls in the water and more planes in the air than we are.

Because you want to keep believing that none of them (except maybe Poland) are materially contributing to their own defense. But that belief is false.

Sorry, bud. All the data shows you're not right on this one. Here, I'll post this DAMNING paragraph again:

“Meaningful increases in procurement activity did not begin until more than one year after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Since then, orders have remained rather small in size. [Even if 123 tanks ordered] are delivered quickly, Germany would still have only 440 main battle tanks—compared to 2400 back in 2004. For other weapon systems, the numbers look even less favorable.” Overall, the study shockingly concludes: “Our findings show that it will take decades if not centuries to build up similar capacities to 2004 at current procurement speeds. When taking into account commitments to Ukraine, we even document that procurement for some weapon systems is insufficient to replace commitments and existing deterrence capabilities are actually falling.”

Let's zoom in on two sentences
“Our findings show that it will take decades if not centuries to build up similar capacities to 2004 at current procurement speeds."

That's just to regain their capabilities of 2004.

But that's not the kicker. This is When taking into account commitments to Ukraine, we even document that procurement for some weapon systems is insufficient to replace commitments and existing deterrence capabilities are actually falling"

See that? They're spending more money, and actually getting worse.

To do what you say they're going to inevitably do means they'd have to dismantle their social welfare states. They won't do that.