Subject: Re: Zee's $BPNYA
Tails....Many thanks for that pic link!

Yes - I see that Zee actually has that column ( its the 6% FIXED one).

However, this is the food for thought - and pardon me, I'll fall back to probability a bit to try and explain the conundrum here:

The 2 conditions lets say are A and B with B being the confirm.

The issue is P(A) and P( A & B) ie both signals happening are actually equal ( From a event window perspective). ie A actually has implied B.(you can confirm this from the bottom panel in my pic -since it plots the BPNYA)

This is what I was trying to illustrate from the chart ..... ie if the Confirmer was actually an ADDITIONAL SAFETY switch then :P(A&B) < P(A) ie

Simple Speak: Cases where the signal gave a false positive B wouldn't have fired.You can see all the way upto 2007 that's not the case.

The Mid-May 2022 is a pristine example of this ( ie False-Positive)

(1) 5/12: MY O/S indicator fires - Green Circle
(2) 5/13: +6% relative reversal fires ( Blue up triangle) and signal from Spreadsheet
(3) 5/17: Fixed +6 : Confirmation (Spreadsheet)
(4) 6/2 : Short term TOP [Chart, S&P500]
(5) 6/7 : BPNYA ST Top : 50.31 ( > 2x from O/S level and this is fairly CONSISTENT!)
(6) 6/10: Bear signal[Spreadsheet]
(7) 6/13 : EXIT , with whipsaw

Also being a bit familiar with Zee's work - he has a plethora of indicators , and he wouldn't have used this BPNYA drop as his only EXIT point. Similarly he uses other confirmatory ones.

Net Surmise: The +6% relative is the best usage of this - because the confirmatory signal actually doesnt really add much or save you from a potential False-Positive. You can see the signal itself STANDALONE is pretty kick-ass! (Just count the # of Yellow markers I drew compared to the Bottom Blue triangles and you will see the false rate)
But its anticipatory in nature - so in Bears you will have to accept the risk of the potential falsies.

Hope this made sense!
Best