Subject: Re: OT, markets rise
Now above 7200.
Looking at the past 15 years, I have done well with Berkshire, Brookfield, etc. However, during this period, buying into the narrative that the index was overvalued, and therefore not aggressively investing into it, has been an Epic Blunder.
Below are Real SP500 annual earnings and price since 1988. Inflation adjusted using latest March 26 CPI of 330.213. Q4 25 and 2026 are estimated/forward earnings. Everything else is actual GAAP as-Reported (not Operating) earnings. Price is of course actual nominal price adjusted for inflation.
YEAR REAL REPORTED
SP500 REAL
YEAREND ANNUAL
PRICE EARNINGS
2026 ---- $290.54 (forward estimate)
2025 6976 $252.01 (q4 estimated)
2024 6154 $220.72
2023 5135 $208.11
2022 4272 $193.93
2021 5645 $239.68
2020 4762 $119.74 (covid dip)
2019 4152 $179.89
2018 3295 $173.94
2017 3581 $147.78
2016 3062 $129.79
2015 2854 $120.38
2014 2895 $142.57
2013 2619 $141.78
2012 2051 $124.23
2011 1840 $127.35
2010 1895 $116.99
2009 1705 $78.14
2008 1419 $21.61 (housing bubble burst)
2007 2309 $105.27
2006 2321 $133.33
2005 2095 $117.75
2004 2103 $102.14
2003 1992 $87.30
2002 1606 $50.62
2001 2146 $46.04 (internet bubble burst)
2000 2506 $95.60
1999 2883 $95.31
1998 2447 $76.34
1997 1987 $81.63
1996 1542 $81.34
1995 1325 $73.49
1994 1013 $67.98
1993 1056 $49.96
1992 1014 $44.86
1991 999 $38.70
1990 815 $53.77
1989 925 $60.82
1988 761 $66.07