Subject: Re: BRK Expected Returns
There is a very interesting chart on page 36 of Bloomstran's annual letter, detailing the average cost of holding "dry powder" cash, waiting for a better opportunity. If held three years, an 18%-25% drop in the stock market is needed to break even. At ten years it is up to 48-61%. The 18-25% scenario seems fairly likely these days, and it could come in less than three years. For me, sitting on large gains, with not unlimited years ahead, his words of warning actually were reassuring.

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