Subject: Re: The clown show has come for the data
Is monthly tax receipt data useful for this kind of thing? At least that is a definite number (I assume!). Obviously there will be changes since taxes are being changed by the new president, but even so, I would expect the numbers to give a useful guide on the economy.

Yes, monthly payroll tax collection is very useful in this regard and nobody covers it better than Bill (wabuffo). You can't chain it together sequentially, you have to compare payroll tax receipts to the same week the prior year. There are all kinds of distortions otherwise - end of year bonus season hits in January, high earners start out paying towards social security but hit their limit mid-year at some point. You can slice and dice the data to see government jobs only (looking for DOGE cuts to start materializing, etc).


Here is a link to twitter where Bill posts his payroll tax receipt analysis. He updates fairly often. Still very healthy compared to the narrative this week FWIW.

https://x.com/wabuffo/status/1...