Subject: Re: meaningless predictions
It's the real interest rate that counts. Interest rates are higher, but inflation is higher too.

Plus, there is tax to pay on the NOMINAL interest earned, so there is actually a loss if both inflation and interest rates rise the same amount.


This is a very insightful and convincing argument. However: there’s a lot of percentage gain, when you’re starting at less than zero on $160b. From about 2010 to 2015, 3 month Treasuries were earning about 0%, with inflation at about 2%. Then from 2015 to 2-2.5%, and inflation was