Subject: Re: Brk and float,
I need to exclude Treasury payables of 14.38 BB in liabilities.
Is this what others have done?
Yes, I did.
36.892+305.501-14.38 = 328
I think we've seen previously that my 5-groves is a lot more "conservative" than yours. I think of it as a price I could buy at that will be a good long-term investment.
To that end I exclude some cash that will never be invested, use a 15 multiple, and use expected earnings from insurance of 1.4% float rather than actual.
Including all the cash and using an 18 multiple I get $480.
It's funny. For the years my method gave an estimated value far higher than the market and I looked silly. Now the same methodology gives a value far lower than the market and I look silly.
I could just say buy at <1.4x book and achieve the same result, but what fun would that be?