Subject: Re: tough day
The market may have been spooked by the total distributable earnings (which includes capital gains) appearing fairly flat year-over-year. This was really misleading because the prior-year period included a huge one-time $1 billion gain from the BAM share sale by BN. Excluding that the underlying business is growing on trend.
Management reaffirmed their 25% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for distributable earnings per share over the next five years, which the market is effectively ignoring.
- 20% from its core business units, including asset management, wealth solutions, and operating businesses.
- 5% from capital allocation strategies, such as asset recycling and share buybacks.
The business is in a really strong position of growth right now and they keep exceeding my expectations with how agile they are, tilting direction opportunistically (in recent years their insurance operations expanded incredibly fast, adding Buffett's float leverage model (which enormously suits the semi-perpetual nature of Brookfield's earnings more than it suits Berkshire bond/equity mix) on top of everything they already have, accelerating fund-raising with data-centre builds, etc) despite the business having such huge scale.
Their reported Plan Value in the latest quarter was $69 per share. On average they have traded at a 30% discount to their reported Plan Value ($48 per share), and they are now quotated at $44, so about an 8% discount to where they typically have traded. Yet their growth projections are higher than usual for the coming decade.
- Manlobbi