Subject: Re: The changing winds of war
Man power

AI Overview
Despite massive losses in personnel and equipment, Russia's military remains a very large force, though its capabilities have been severely eroded. High casualty rates have been offset by aggressive recruitment and mobilization drives, which have expanded the total number of active-duty soldiers. However, experts note a severe decline in quality and experience, particularly in ground forces.
Personnel
Total active personnel: As of early 2025, estimates place the number of active-duty Russian soldiers at around 1.1–1.3 million. In 2024, Russia claimed to have recruited nearly 440,000 new personnel, though observers believe this figure is likely exaggerated.
Casualty estimates: Western intelligence and independent analysis estimate that Russia has suffered between 750,000 and 1 million total casualties (killed and wounded) by mid-2025. For comparison, Russia's pre-war active-duty military was around 900,000.
Replenishment strategy: To sustain its numbers, Russia has relied heavily on:
Raising the upper age limit for conscription.
Aggressive recruitment drives offering high salaries.
Pressing convicts and debtors into service in exchange for amnesty.
Deploying more expendable troops from remote regions and prisons.
Equipment and capabilities
Russia's military has suffered substantial equipment losses, particularly among its ground forces, though its defense industry has ramped up production to compensate. The quality of its arsenal has declined due to the reliance on older, unmodernized systems from storage.
Ground forces
Tanks: Russia likely began the war with about 3,300 combat-ready tanks and has suffered confirmed losses of over 4,000, according to open-source trackers. While the defense industry can produce a few hundred new T-90M tanks per year, this is far outpaced by battlefield losses. As a result, Russia relies heavily on restoring and deploying old Soviet-era T-62s and T-55s.
Armored vehicles: Russia has lost thousands of armored vehicles and may deplete its pre-war reserves by the end of 2025.
Artillery: Ukrainian strikes on ammunition depots have significantly reduced Russia's advantage in artillery, though it still has a substantial arsenal.
Air forces
Aircraft losses: Despite losing hundreds of aircraft since the full-scale invasion, Russia retains a large air force of over 4,000 military aircraft.
Operational restrictions: Due to threats from Ukrainian air defenses, Russian aircraft often operate cautiously over Russian-controlled territory, launching long-range munitions rather than flying directly over the front lines.
Naval forces
Black Sea Fleet: The Russian Navy has been hit particularly hard, with significant losses to its Black Sea Fleet, including the sinking of its flagship, the Moskva.
Black Sea restrictions: Ukraine's naval drone and missile attacks have pushed the fleet out of most of the western Black Sea and forced it to operate from safer ports further east.
Overall state
The heavy losses have exposed significant weaknesses in Russia's military, including:
Rigid command-and-control structures
Endemic corruption
Inadequate training for replacement personnel
Poor morale in some units
Despite these problems, Russia's large population and willingness to absorb massive casualties allow it to maintain troop levels and sustain a long war of attrition. The size of Russia's military should not be mistaken for its operational effectiveness.