Subject: Re: Powell Cannot Say the "S" Word
In reality, 2025 1st qtr. GDP was (0.6); 2nd was 3.8%; 3rd is estimated to be 3.9% by the Atlanta Fed; and 4th qtr is projected to be 1.5% - 2.0% (all annualized).
so
For full year 2025, this works out to a positive GDP grown rate of 2.175% for the full year.

Since the official definition of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, you're going to have to wait until at least sometime in July 2026, when the 2nd quarter 2026 reports come out, before you can hope to claim that a recession has occurred.


The bizarre part is that you're hoping for a recession, undoubtedly so the Dems win the midterm elections.


Progressive values.