Subject: Re: UTG - wow, the buybacks are getting interesting!
Another 550k shares bought back on Friday. NICE.

I think the total for the week was: 150k, 350k, 1M, 700k, 550k averaging around £5, for a total of 2.75 million shares, or roughly £14 million of the £100 buyback.

That's a pretty solid week of buybacks by UK standards!

An update was issued confirming the shares are being cancelled immediately, rather than held in treasury from where they might be easily reissued/sold later.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/...

I ran the maths again last night to double check the impact of this phase of buybacks.

Basically a 100m buyback at these prices, will add about 15p to NAV/share, assuming a penny or two lost in friction.

That might not sound like much, but when you have an 8% dividend yield and a 2% buyback yield boosting NAV (with more to follow - it's 'initial' buyback) plus a bit of inflation, even if the share price goes nowhere, you're in a good place.

Set against these numbers is the ongoing yield compression effect on NAV as their cheap debt ages out which reduces NAV (as we saw this year, e.g. the yucky IFRS numbers).

However, by cancelling new projects and selling properties, they don't need to take on new debt at currently higher interest rates, which means the yield compression effect will moderate out at the end of 2026 (you can see some numbers in the 2025 presentations pointing to this). In fact if rates drop well down, yield compression will go into reverse and we'll get some very, VERY nice IFRS and NAV numbers for a few years.

Also, I noticed that about half the 'trouble' in their occupancy figures, in the presentations, is from build projects that are completing, which obviously sit empty during construction and for a little while after. By cancelling most of their upcoming new builds, this impact on occupancy will reduce. I think that effect by itself could improve the occupancy figure by maybe 0.5% in late 2026 and 2027, by my estimation. Basically they're reducing drag factors.

Similarly by going fast with the buybacks, they're reducing cash drag by getting money to work right away. Cash drag is a real pain for REITs.

Hope this info is useful to someone.

TRS