Subject: Re: GGT Timing update
Nice short perspective of the current environment 'Why My Recession Rule Could Go Wrong This Time' by Sahm. Love her warning not to make too much (or too little) of her indicator.

But again, a recession is not inevitable. Indicators of economic downturns like the Sahm rule are empirical regularities from the past, not laws of nature.

Allocate Smartly compared a backtest of GTT vs a modified GTT that used the unemployment rate compared to asset prices alone. The results were very similar agreeing on allocation 96% of the time.
Philosophical Economics' Growth-Trend Timing (Redux) - Allocate Smartly
https://allocatesmartly.com/ph...

RAM